By Ray Wu, MD · Disclosure: Key to Health offers a behavioral weight management program. Every model assumption below is disclosed and favors the drug. Full methodology and model detail. Even under ideal conditions — recommended dose, 100% persistence, the highest-risk patients — broad GLP-1 coverage for obesity doesn’t break even on medical savings. Semaglutide…
Author: Ray Wu
The GLP-1 Math for Obesity: Full Analysis and Methodology
By Ray Wu, MD GLP-1 medications are the most clinically impressive cardiometabolic drugs in a generation. Semaglutide produced a 20% reduction in major adverse cardiovascular events in the SELECT trial (Lincoff et al., NEJM 2023). Tirzepatide produced up to 22.5% weight loss at the 15 mg dose in SURMOUNT-1. These are large, well-conducted, replicated results.…
The Reality Gap
By Ray Wu, MD The clinical trials of semaglutide and tirzepatide produced 15-21% weight loss. STEP 1 hit 14.9% with semaglutide; SURMOUNT-1 hit 20.9% with tirzepatide. SELECT, the cardiovascular outcomes trial of semaglutide, produced a 20% reduction in major adverse cardiovascular events. These are remarkable numbers — among the most impressive results in obesity drug…
400,000 New Users in 10 Weeks. What’s the Maintenance Plan?
The Wegovy pill has been on the U.S. market for less than three months. In that time, an estimated 400,000 Americans have started taking it — making it, by some accounts, the fastest drug launch in history. And the pipeline behind it is staggering. Novo Nordisk just received FDA approval for Wegovy HD, a higher-dose…